TÜRKİYE’S GEOPOLITICS AND 2050 VISION | İlim ve Medeniyet

Introduction

This research paper examines Türkiye’s geopolitics and 2050 vision. The text consists of two parts. In the first part, Türkiye’s current geopolitical position will be examined in detail. In the second part, Türkiye’s geopolitics in 2050 and its relations in this context will be evaluated.

Türkiye’s Geopolitics

It can be said that Türkiye has a mathematical and special position. In the mathematical position, more technical explanations are made according to meridian and parallels. However, this article includes factors that can be considered special. Some of the special elements are not immutable, such as the mathematical position, and vary from period to period. In this sense, an assessment of Türkiye’s geopolitical and geostrategic importance will be made within the framework of the following keywords: continent, region, neighboring states, natural resources, water resources, seas and straits, climate and agriculture, population, transportation and trade routes, pipelines (… ).

Türkiye is a country located in the center of Europe, Asia, and Africa continents. The mainland of Türkiye is located on two continents, Asia, and Europe. It is a transit route to Europe for Asia and to Asia for Europe. Our country is one of the rare countries that is surrounded by seas on three sides and has long coastlines. Anatolian geography, where many political, military, historical, and cultural civilizations were founded and moved in the history of civilization, can be considered as a bridge between the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa.

Türkiye’s geomorphology is important to make sense of the unchanging geopolitical elements. Because landforms affect the diversity of countries’ economic activities and their economic and political relations with others. For instance, the plains formed between two mountain ranges in the north and south of our country are important in terms of agricultural diversity and productivity.[1] In addition, other unchanging factors such as the climate formed due to the mathematical position are also important in terms of the agricultural diversity and productivity of the country.

Türkiye is an important country in terms of water resources. Our country is at the forefront as it has rivers, lakes, streams, and seas, which are called inland waters. Water wealth is a feature that can also be used as political material for a country. Because Türkiye is the geography where the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which are important for the Middle East, are born. “For both rivers, Türkiye is the ‘upstream’ country, Syria is the ‘middle ground’ country, and Iraq is the ‘downstream’ country”[2]. In this regard, it should be said that the countries that have waterpower are in a superior position compared to those that do not. However, the important thing is that it can be used effectively and efficiently. In other words, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, whose examples are given, should provide more hydro-political gains for the Middle East in favor of Türkiye.

Being a country rich in water resources is both advantageous and disadvantageous as being a centrally located country. This causes political crises with neighbors on water policies from time to time. The abundance of coastal areas has caused our country’s population to gather in these areas compared to the interior. Therefore, great economic activities are carried out in these areas. “Coastal regions give countries geopolitical strength.”[3]

The Straits are also one of Türkiye’s geopolitically important features. Because “the straits seriously affect our country’s ability to operate in the field of security, especially in military and economic matters.”[4] Because the Straits connect the surrounding seas. Countries such as Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia carry out their trade using the straits. However, Black Sea countries can access the southern seas by using the straits.

Türkiye is located at the center of transportation and trade routes. It is the crossroads for Asia, Europe, and Africa. This issue, which is geopolitically important, is evaluated in favor of our country with various projects. For example, Türkiye constitutes an important part of the land transportation of the “Belt and Road Initiative” project, which is described as the Modern Silk Road project (see figure 1). “The main purpose of the Silk Road project is to establish a trade network connecting China and the Far East to Europe and the Middle East.”[5]

The visuals of places such as transportation and commerce that have passed from history to the present in Türkiye will make my writing more meaningful. Please review the 2nd Figure.

In addition, Türkiye is an important milestone for the distribution of energy. Because many pipelines (TürkAkım Natural Gas Pipeline / TÜRKAKIM, Russia – Türkiye Natural Gas Pipeline / Western Line, Blue Stream Natural Gas Pipeline / Blue Stream) pass through our country. The reason for this is that our country is an important region in terms of natural gas and oil. Providing the transfer of Caspian, Middle Eastern, and Russian gas oil to Europe affects Türkiye strategically (please review figure 3).

Türkiye is a country rich in underground resources. Türkiye stands out in terms of reserves such as dolomite and marble, which are types of limestone. In addition, natural resource reserves that have begun to be discovered in the seas and oceans in the world have accelerated Türkiye’s Black Sea and Mediterranean breakthroughs. These discoveries are important attempts to increase Türkiye’s influence and power.

Another important factor when evaluating Türkiye’s geopolitics is the population issue. Population (especially qualified population-it will be evaluated detailed in the part of the 2050 vision) is a geopolitically important force. The fact that the population of developed countries is mostly old reveals the importance of Türkiye with its young population. Another important phenomenon in the population is immigration. Since the 1980s, Türkiye has become a country that receives immigration, where irregular migration is experienced, and which is the transit route for those who want to go to Europe.

It is possible to say that there are global and regional powers in terms of political, military, and cultural (…) in political areas. After the Cold War, Türkiye became one of the important regional powers, especially in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia. With its foreign policy breakthroughs, soft power strategy, and military-technological developments in recent years, Türkiye is now in the position of a playmaker on the field both in its geography and overseas.

For instance, in order to ensure the security of the state, operations are carried out with many terrorist organizations both in the country and abroad. In addition, Türkiye is an active actor in the region with the military bases it has established in different countries (Somalia, Libya, Qatar relations, etc…).

There are many international organizations (NATO, WTO, OECD…) of which Türkiye is a member, from economy to military and security. The European Union, which is one of the most important, is an organization that Türkiye has been a candidate for a long time but could not enter. Although Türkiye is a buffer zone for the European Union and an important country for the development and stability of the Middle East region, it is still a candidate. Since Türkiye is a regional actor, every state, organization, or institution that wants to maintain its existence in this region (the necessity of this should be questioned) should cooperate.

It has taken the necessary steps under the name of Türkiye’s harmonization process with the European Union. However, I find it true that Serbian President Alexander Vucic said about his country Serbia, “Entering the EU is now a fairy tale”. As a matter of fact, in my opinion, this expectation prevents the countries from acting as required by their vision and mission.

In summary, when we consider national interests, which is an important concept for geopolitics, our country’s goals should be arranged by its own national interests, as it has done in recent years. For instance, using the existing energy for defense technologies makes much more sense than the time and budget allocated for harmonization with the EU. In addition, it is very meaningful to me that there are new searches (Türkiye’s opening to Asia-Turkic States Organization).

One of the organizations that Türkiye is a member of is NATO. The Mediterranean geography and the Middle East are regions that international organizations and global powers always want to influence, due to their strategic importance. Türkiye has been one of the first states to become a member of the United Nations and NATO in this spiral of relations. Organizations such as NATO and the UN are aware of the importance of Türkiye in maintaining stability and peace in the region. Especially in recent years, our country’s hand in these organizations has been strengthened. Recall Türkiye’s role in the polemic of Finland and Sweden’s accession after the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In this context, it can be said that our country is among the states with significant influence in NATO. Because after this event, these two terrorist supporter countries would have to accept Türkiye’s rightful demands against terrorism in order to complete their membership. However, Türkiye is an important border country for NATO due to its location.

Militarily, it can be said that our country continues its state tradition by developing it today. Operations and activities are carried out at home and abroad with the mission of ensuring peace and stability of humanity in various regions of the world, especially in the security of our country. I would like to remind you that military power is also at the forefront in order to understand geopolitics. Our country is increasing its power in order to provide a serenity-peace-security environment for humanity with the national technology movement and military high-level-innovative equipment in this regard.

In addition, the elements that threaten the security and peace-serenity of humanity are eliminated thanks to the operations carried out by our National Intelligence Agency in a coordinated and synchronized manner with our military and embassies at home and abroad. Intelligence is a powerful weapon for geopolitical interests and Türkiye uses it effectively and efficiently.

Individual leader characteristics can also provide an idea for geopolitical considerations. We witness that Türkiye is an important country for humanity in many regions of the world and in the geographies of the heart, and the President of Türkiye is described as a leader in this sense. In fact, this situation emerges as a factor that increases the impact capacity and potential of our country.

The regime type of a country is also important within the framework of geopolitical evaluation in terms of its compliance with the democratic Western values accepted at world standards. When we examine the experience of the Republic of Türkiye on democracy, and the presidential system itself, it can be said that it is at a relatively good level compared to other countries. Although political participation, which is very important for democracy, has many parameters such as interest groups, social movements, campaigns, and meetings (…), there is also a reality like elections, voting, and the ballot boxes. When we look at the voting rates in our country, it is obvious that we have a very legitimate political system democratically.

In this regard, it is necessary to remember Fukuyama’s “End of History” thesis.[6] Because he is a theorist who made predictions for the new century after the Cold War. Fukuyama, who described it as the victory of liberalism, the cumulative Western values system, and democracy after the collapse of the Soviet Union, does not foresee a better system than these. Fukuyama, who tried to make explanations in the context of Kant and Hegel and within the framework of the “Democratic Peace Theory”, emphasized that the problem-solving methods of countries with Western values would be different. In other words, according to him, liberal, democratic, western-facing states would not enter into war. Recent history has shown us that Fukuyama was wrong.

In summary, taking part in world-standard systems for geopolitical potential is the key to geopolitical initiatives. As a matter of fact, regime types are a very important keyword for geopolitics.

Türkiye’s 2050 Vision

Under this heading, I will make individual geopolitical predictions until 2050, inspired by the breakthroughs our country has made in recent years. It should be said that governments have different approaches in terms of vision and mission. In this sense, I think that before the current government, Türkiye could not have a say in foreign policy and was mostly preoccupied with (sometimes unnecessary and meaningless) domestic issues. This situation is more than a thought, it is actually a phenomenon that can be examined and compared with concrete examples. However, since this is not the main theme of this article, then I skip it.

If a state has a claim to be a world power, it should have institutions and bureaucrats to justify it. Recently, institutions and individuals acting with this belief reveal a new vision of Türkiye. For example, the New Turkish foreign policy period, which is defined as a new geographical period, constitutes the new geopolitical scenario of our country.[7]

The foundations that build Türkiye’s 2050 vision are shaped in the context of the new Turkish foreign policy. “In this sense, there is a multi-layered approach in which it is claimed that establishing relations with the Caucasus, the Balkans (including Greece and Bulgaria), Iran, Syria, and the Gulf countries is not only for regional stability but also for the security of Türkiye.”[8]

I think that the systems developed by our country as soft power will continue to grow until 2050. For example, I foresee those rare institutions such as the Turkish Maarif Foundation, in the field of education, TIKA, to contribute to the development of countries, YTB, is a close follower of our national presence abroad, and YEE, in the field of promoting our social, cultural, and artistic existence (…) will increase and expand the influence of our country.[9]

With the visionary new understanding of strategic foreign affairs, I foresee that our country will be in a critical position of playmaker wherever the states of the world are located. I predict that it will not be a defensive, introverted Türkiye, but a playmaker, “qualified active”, knowing what it is doing.

In the 20th century, especially after the Second World War, many military, political, and cultural blocks, and regional/global unions were formed. I foresee that our country, which is among these organizations at different degrees according to its periodical political superiority, will have a greater say in especially political and military organizations (such as NATO and UN…) within the framework of the 2050 vision. Because the statements and promises made by the AK Party on this subject give signals that we will be more effective in these organizations.

In this context, I think that especially NATO will continue to exist. After the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, this organization, which monopolized the power militarily, is considered as a balancing element in the system. I predict that Türkiye will continue to be an important power within NATO. In this regard, I think that a strong Türkiye, especially militarily, will increase its influence in NATO. If our breakthroughs such as the defense industry and national technology move are not interrupted and continue, it means Türkiye’s hand is strong both within NATO and in other international organizations.

Thanks to Türkiye’s technological superiority (I mean SİHA-İHA technologies, etc.) in the recent wars (Russia-Ukrain and Azerbaijan-Armenia), military aid to countries is a very important move in terms of the prestige of the country. In this regard, I foresee that our country’s steady progress in bringing a new breath in the international arena will continue within the framework of the 2050 vision.

Additionally, I find the “African Maneuvers”, which is one of the most important expansions of our country in the recent period, valuable. The presence of our military bases in Somalia is important in terms of “saving the region” from the influence of the states that have dominated the region until now. As a matter of fact, basically, every powerful state wants to increase its influence in the international arena. With our country’s presence in Somalia, we actually show our country’s strength on the field.

The country with the longest coastline in Africa is Somalia. This is one of the key points of trade between Asia and Europe. As for energy transfer, Somalia’s geopolitical position makes Türkiye a say in the international arena. In my opinion, the citizens of our country should not discuss whether it is necessary or unnecessary when evaluating Türkiye’s overseas expansions and geopolitical moves. Because I must state that we are quite late for these moves.

It is important in terms of our geopolitics that our country attempts to open up to the West until recently and that the East Asian block is used as a balancing material on the West. I foresee that these balance policies will continue until it becomes a fully independent, global power. In the 2050 Vision, I consider our Asian expansion (with the moves of the Organization of Turkic States) as a “third way”. I foresee that our country will maintain the leadership of this union and within the framework of the 2050 vision, activities will be carried out in other important areas (economic, political, military, cultural, and educational…).

Greece’s attempts to encroach on our rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, with the support of our ally the USA, and arming the islands are violating the rules of international law. It shows with its actions that our country will not violate its rights under any circumstances while following the legal processes in this regard. Because in the context of the “Preemptive Attack” theory[10], it is obvious that Greece is quite uncomfortable with Türkiye’s development in the military and defense industry.

In the final analysis, although there are attempts to limit the influence and authority of our country in the Eastern Mediterranean, our exclusive economic zone borders have been determined as a result of diplomatic processes with Libya and Northern Cyprus. This is an economic issue as well as a political and prestige issue. As a matter of fact, in our 2050 vision, I foresee that such breakthroughs will increasingly develop.

We talked about the importance of population in terms of geopolitics. In our country’s vision for 2050, I predict that the population will improve in terms of quality. I foresee that the voluntary return of the immigrants in our country to their regions will take place in the next few years after safe areas are provided. Another issue I would like to mention is that our country is a center of attraction for qualified individuals in the vision of 2050. Because while most of the developed countries act strategically about “nationalism”, there are still individuals who act in a primitive way in the world and in our country.

I foresee that wherever there is persecution in the world, especially in the places near our country, in terms of terrorism, it will be eliminated step by step within the framework of our ability to act. Time will show that the manipulations of media elements that create a perception against our country in the world will be fruitless. Making statements that will ensure international security, prosperity, peace, and stability is actually a reflection of the world and human view. Because in our civilization there is an understanding of “let the people live so that the state can live” and there are plenty of examples of this in our history. As a result of our perception of the world, which is not aimed at destruction and invasion, but towards construction, I know that we will act towards achieving world peace in our 2050 vision, as always.

[1] Geomorphology is the study of the process of the formation of landforms and sediments on the Earth’s surface. The formations could be a result of surface processes triggered by water, air, ice, volcanic eruptions, landslides, earthquakes, etc.

[2] Coşkun Şerefoğlu, Analysis of Tigress and Euphrates Rivers Regarding Transboundary Water Management, Master Thesis.

[3] DOĞAN, M., & DOĞAN, Ö. S. Türkiye’s Geopolitics. Journal of the International Academy of Management, 5(2), 320-339.

[4] DOĞAN, Mesut (2021), “Geopolitics and Türkiye”, International Scientific Conference, Global Challenges – Scientific Solutions II, 14 October 2020 – Antwerp (Belgium), pp.102-105.

[5] SILKROUTES.NET. (2010). Definition and History of “Silk Road” or “Silk Road”. Retrieved 05.06.2023 from http://www.silkroutes.net/: http://silkroutes.net/DefinitionHistorySilkRoad.htm.

[6] Şule Şahin Ceylan, Francis Fukuyama, and The End of History Thesis, Istanbul Commerce University Journal of Social Sciences Year:5 Issue:10 Fall 2006/2 Pp.233-252

[7] Özgür Balkılıç & Fatma Armağan Teke Lloyd, Reading the Ak Party’s Discourse on Syrian Migrants from The Lens of Türkiye’s Geopolitical Script Alternative Politics, 2020, 12 (3): 542-564, pg: 8

[8] Özgür Balkılıç & Fatma Armağan Teke Lloyd, Reading the Ak Party’s Discourse on Syrian Migrants from The Lens of Türkiye’s Geopolitical Script Alternative Politics, 2020, 12 (3): 542-564, pg: 8

[9] For detailed information about the Vision and activity reports of the institutions mentioned in Turkish format:

• https://turkiyemaarif.org/uploads/editions/files/16435827a044b6.pdf
• https://ytbweb1.blob.core.windows.net/files/2022/BELGELER2022/2021%20FAAL%C4%B0YET%20RAPORU.pdf
• https://www.tika.gov.tr/upload/old/2023/FAAL%C4%B0YET%20RAPORU/T%C4%B0KA%202022%20%C4%B0dare%20Faaliyet%20Raporu.pdf
• https://www.yee.org.tr/sites/default/files/2023_vizyonu.pdf

[10] A preemptive attack is defined as an attack initiated on the basis of incontrovertible evidence that an enemy attack is imminent.

 

References

• Özgür Balkılıç & Fatma Armağan Teke Lloyd, Reading the Ak Party’s Discourse on Syrian Migrants from The Lens of Türkiye’s Geopolitical Script Alternative Politics, 2020, 12 (3): 542-564, pg: 8
• Şule Şahin Ceylan, Francis Fukuyama, and The End of History Thesis, Istanbul Commerce University Journal of Social Sciences Year:5 Issue:10 Fall 2006/2 Pp.233-252
• DOĞAN, M., & DOĞAN, Ö. S. Türkiye’s Geopolitics. Journal of the International Academy of Management, 5(2), 320-339.
• DOĞAN, M., & DOĞAN, Ö. S. Türkiye’s Geopolitics. Journal of the International Academy of Management, 5(2), 320-339.
• NET. (2010). Definition and History of “Silk Road” or “Silk Road”. Retrieved 05.06.2023 from http://www.silkroutes.net/: http://silkroutes.net/DefinitionHistorySilkRoad.htm.
• Coşkun Şerefoğlu, Analysis of Tigress and Euphrates Rivers Regarding Transboundary Water Management, Master Thesis.
• https://turkiyemaarif.org/uploads/editions/files/16435827a044b6.pdf
• https://ytbweb1.blob.core.windows.net/files/2022/BELGELER2022/2021%20FAAL%C4%B0YET%20RAPORU.pdf
• https://www.tika.gov.tr/upload/old/2023/FAAL%C4%B0YET%20RAPORU/T%C4%B0KA%202022%20%C4%B0dare%20Faaliyet%20Raporu.pdf
• https://www.yee.org.tr/sites/default/files/2023_vizyonu.pdf

Figures from

• Journal of the International Academy of Management
• Bocutoğlu, 2017: 266, HSBC, 2017; 2

 

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